It is an indisputable fact that private finance, which contributes more to "China's speed" than bank credit, has become extremely crazy this year. Some interest rates are even higher than 180%! The key factor is that when the real economy is depressed, the impetuous and hype prevailing in the whole economy magnifies the risk of private lending, making private lending exceed the security boundary, and then there is a dangerous tendency of usury and nationalization. In the past, private lending was mostly used by small and medium-sized enterprises to supplement short-term liquidity needs, while today's private lending is either used to speculate in real estate or to speculate in mines. Even if it flows into small and medium-sized enterprises, under the pressure of high interest rates, it is impossible to earn back by doing business.
Therefore, some small and medium-sized enterprises once again released the private lending funds at a higher interest rate, and speculated with money, which multiplied the risk, making the private lending that used to be mainly used for blood transfusion of the private economy gradually separated from the industry, and became a drum-beating fancy gambling game of speculating with money. The final result is that the hollowing out and investment speculation of small and medium-sized enterprises is gradually becoming a mine that may explode at any time, and the real economy is in jeopardy!
The new "four modernizations" are very unfortunate!
Since monopoly, resources, finance and real estate have become the most important sources of profits for Chinese enterprises, China's economy has actually experienced a new "four modernizations" phenomenon that has been worrying for a long time: resource monopoly, industry hollowing out, investment virtualization and economic desertification. These four modernizations can be described as the most realistic portrayal of China's economy at present, and also the most intuitive response to China's "nature and causes of wealth".
Why are Chinese enterprises keen on the "new four modernizations"? In addition to the reasons for the incomplete reform of the political system, the spread of the real estate foam is not exempt from the responsibility: private capital, state-owned capital and foreign capital all rush to enter the real estate industry. In the case of soaring house prices, industry has become the most unpromising choice. In foreign countries, many well-known entrepreneurs, such as Welch of General Motors, Grove of Intel and Jobs of Apple, rarely leave the industry to enter the capital market. Look at Forbes and Fortune 500 companies, and there are few real estate and pure capital operators. In contrast, in China today, many promising entrepreneurs leave the industry for various reasons to play with capital and real estate, which is the great misfortune of China's economy.
For an economy, if the nature and source of its wealth mainly depend on monopoly, real estate and virtual economy, the economy will eventually become "hollow" due to the contraction of industry, and the whole economy will evolve into a "pyramid marketing" system that only pursues wealth distribution, but does not create wealth. Therefore, the solution we need to think about is not to rescue loan sharks or real estate speculators, but to promote the legalization of private lending and the return of the economy to industry through reflection on the reform and system.
Determined to control the future
The root cause of all the problems is the incomplete reform: the incomplete financial reform leads to financial repression, distortion of financial resource allocation, and the breeding of underground finance, but also accumulates risks; However, the political system reform and the reform in the deep economic field are not complete, resulting in the extremely bad environment for doing industry. The private economy can only choose to give up industry to do short-term investment and speculation, and has not much plan for the future. Impetuous and short-term is obvious, which is by no means what a country should have in its prosperous times. Therefore, only by really promoting financial reform, promoting political system reform, breaking the pattern of interests, correcting the name of private finance, and creating a good environment for industry can we achieve a real soft landing.
As far as the real economy is concerned, the reason why SMEs bid farewell to industry is that the hyped foam represented by real estate led to a large amount of capital flowing into the virtual field, and the survival environment of the entire SMEs deteriorated. Therefore, the political system reform has become the biggest obstacle to the economic transformation. If we do not make up our minds at this time, take the courage to promote the process of China's reform, and adopt the appeasement attitude in the face of interest groups, we will really lose the fleeting opportunity for reform, and cause China's society to fall into a terrible historical cycle again.
